Wednesday (Milton Arrives)

 5:00 a.m. Wednesday

Overnight, the predicted cone has shifted a bit north. Dunedin is about 8 miles from being outside the northern edge of the cone of possible landfall. The cone is now 115 miles wide along the west coast of Florida.

It's possible that we still get a direct hit, but the most likely path is that Milton makes landfall on Longboat Key, just north of Sarasota and just south of Tampa Bay, at about 2 a.m. Thursday morning. That's a dicey path for the Tampa Bay Area, but better than a Clearwater landfall. Milton is predicted to be a cat 4 at landfall and not a cat 3 as predicted yesterday. The current prediction has our storm surge at 1-3 feet with the Ft. Myers area getting the 9+ surge because we would be on the north of the eye while Ft. Myers would be south. Hurricane winds are expected to extend 30 miles from the center. Longboat Key is about 50 miles away. Our winds are expected to be 55 mph at 2-3 a.m. Currently, Milton is at 160 mph, or cat 5.

From The New York Times 

At 58 mph, we could have tree limbs to break and some shingles torn off.

Storm surge warnings look good for us.

10+ inches of rain predicted for us.

8:00 a.m. Wednesday

I don't see any change with this update.

Looks the same, but the winds are now 155, a cat 4, down from 160 mph, a cat 5.

11:00 a.m. Wednesday

The 11:00 a.m. forecast is very good for us. It's the first projection where Dunedin has been outside the cone of probability of getting a direct hit. We are now 20 miles north of the cone. The center of the cone now lies to the south of Sarasota with a projected cat 3, about 60 miles to our south. The cone is about 80 miles wide now. 

The chance for damaging winds in Dunedin has gone from 71% to 53%, according to the NYT, beginning at 7 p.m.

Storm surge risk in Tampa Bay looks much better. There is no storm surge for Dunedin or the barrier islands until you get to Treasure Island.

All the barrier islands south of the projected landfall may get 6+ feet of storm surge.

2:00 p.m. Wednesday

The 2:00 p.m. update looks about the same. The wind speed is down to 130 mph., barely a cat 4. It is projected to be a cat 3 upon landfall.

5:00 p. m. Wednesday

Good news and bad news

Good news: the wind speed is down to 120, cat 3. (Cat 4: 130-156) A category 2 begins at 110. The cold front from the north is slowing the storm down.

Bad news: the cold front from the north is also shifting where the highest wind is going. Instead of the right side of the storm, the highest winds will be on the left side of the storm, to the north, which is where we are. Also the highest rain. Also, the storm shifted north again with landfall now predicted at Bradenton Beach. That's only about 40 miles away. Hurricane force winds are projected to radiate out 35 miles. So, we're about where we were this morning, but with much less wind, still a major storm though.

With the changes, we now have a 99% chance of damaging winds, beginning at 7 p.m. I suspect we'll lose power before then.

Next Update: 8:00 p.m. Wednesday (unless we lose power first) 

We brought in our outdoor chairs.

It was raining when we woke up and should rain all day and night. It's a light rain this morning. All the gutters are working normally.

We put on our boots this afternoon to check on the gutters and water accumulation. The water from the back yard empties into the street here.

The streets have been flowing all day. This water heads to Lake Saundra and the lake empties into Curlew Creek which empties into the sound. (Our neighbors' houseguests are parking in our drive to avoid the big oak next to the drive.)

We identified the ponds of concern, but we believe they are releasing their water to the swale between our house and the neighbor's house, emptying into the street. I don't believe we're getting much water from the neighbors' yards, at least not at this point. Everything is pretty flat in the surrounding yards with subtle swales between houses to the street.

A small pond around the avocado tree.

The backdoor to our sunroom is our most vulnerable spot. I placed a plastic membrane with sandbags on top at the threshold. If the backyard completely floods because the water can't get to the street fast enough, then this door could be a problem, not to mention that most of our belongings are stored in the sunroom during the renovation.

It's hard to fathom what a foot of rain will do. 

I'm hoping that it happens gently enough so that it all gets to the street and doesn't back up.

The street is almost full of water, but it's flowing.

The wind is coming from the north east as we approach 6:00 p.m.

We're rushing to finish washing clothes, dishes, and ourselves so we'll be clean when we lose power.